- It would lead you to believe the Iranians have a need to bring down a drone which is simply taking pictures that any high-resolution satellite could pick up albeit not in real-time. The Iranians have known for quite some time that we've been using our technology to spy on them and what areas we would be "curious" about. Heck, any fourth grade student whose ever played Call of Duty knows that as well.
- Second, it presumes the Iranians have the intelligence to know when exactly a UAV is flying and over which area. Where would they get this type of information? We have captured ZERO moles inside our government who would/could link sensitive drone technology/intelligence to Iran. They would require an immense amount of verifiable data for such a project to be undertaken undetected and implemented almost flawlessly such as flight patterns (remember this is a "stealth" aircraft SEVERAL years in the making), satellite data which no other foreign government has used as of yet, real-time drone locations, and types of drones being flown. Keep in mind the Beast of Khandahar wasn't "discovered" until 2009 at a base in Afghanistan.
- Third, that it would have the time to detect and dispatch the necessary equipment to those areas. Even if it had the intelligence necessary, it has little in the ways of "stealth" technology to test this against let alone test it without raising eyebrows in Washington or Tel Aviv.
- Lastly, the Iranians never once thought to employ or use this in their campaign against the United States in Iran. Seriously, why is this the first time the Iranians have showcased such a bird? This presumes this is the first "stealth" UAV to fly over Iranian territory. Surely, if they were as good as some pundits would have you believe, where are the other "stealth" drones? I know - Iran, now claims to have seven other US drones. What we know for a FACT is they have one verifiable drone in their custody. How hard would it be to recreate a mock-up and say they "captured" the others? Why now has the President requested just this one particular drone? Because they only had this one and he already got what he wanted when it crashed.
- Just because something is possible does not make it plausible. It is possible I could one day become the CEO of Microsoft, but given my lack of experience as the CEO of a major corporation, it is not plausible. The same can be said of the Iranians. They are great at many things. And are a very good adversary. However, this is a country that had a 7 year war with a country that took us a few months to overrun (barring the pseudo-quagmire that later ensued with the help of our Iranian "friends"). Having such technology could be useful, in many arenas and operational theaters for Iran, yet it only provides "fruit" for them now?
Friday, December 16, 2011
UPDATE: Lost Drone or Trojan Horse?
I have some issues with this theory from an intelligence standpoint, as it supposes a lot about the Iranians and their capabilities.
If I were in the business of punditry and consulting for major media networks, I would stick to the "massive intelligence failure" story. However, I'm just a guy with a blog so I'll stick with what's plausible and wonder how a multi-million dollar "stealth" aircraft flown by the largest intelligence apparatus has a "mechanical failure" over an enemy's territory whose nuclear development program was brought to its knees by a computer virus invented probably by the aforementioned intelligence agency.